Wednesday, February 29, 2012

The Gilbert Trade and the Ensuing Gamble on the Blueline

In trading the puck-moving Tom Gilbert back to his Minnesotan homeland in exchange for stay-at-home defender Nick Schultz, Steve Tambellini is taking an awfully big risk in relying on Ryan Whitney and Jeff Petry to carry the mail for the Oiler blueline...that is if he doesn't add another quality defenceman before October, which he absolutely has to.

Schultz brings a much-needed presence in the defensive zone where the Oilers are once again hemorrhaging goals (21st in the league as of right now in both goals against and in goal differential). But what the club gains in Schultz they equally lose the offense and two-way ability that Gilbert provided.
Theories abound in the mainstream media (particularly those of Jim Matheson and John MacKinnon) suggest that the development of Jeff Petry on the blueline made this trade doable, if not preferable as a pure "hockey trade": an even swap. Other bloggers aren't so fond of the deal (David Staples makes note of that general consensus), as they saw Gilbert as the club's best defenceman. I'm a fan of both players and think that Schultz will provide much-needed stability in his own zone, but I don't like trading a Jack of All Trades player in Gilbert unless the return is worthwhile. What it does without question is put a ton of weight on the wonky ankles of Whitney and the young shoulders of Petry.

The risk is palpable with Whitney given his injury history. He's arguably the club's best defenceman when he's healthy. If he manages to stay out of the infirmary for the rest of this season, he'll have played 51 games. That's about 20 games short of where the Oilers need him to be. Bottom line, and as much as it pains me to say it, Edmonton can't rely on him going forward.

As a Michigan State law school alum, I had the privilege of watching Petry skate for the Spartans in his senior year. He had all of the things amateur scouts look for: a great stride, moves the puck well and chips in offensively without giving up too much in his own zone. I watched him rather closely that season at MSU and he noticeably produced more than he gave up in terms of scoring chances, and the Oilers need that kind of player to steady the back end. All things considered, he's basically a younger Gilbert and if he grows into that role he'll become a top pairing guy for the club down the road. What gives me reason for pause is that he's only 24 and this is his first true season of playing the minutes that he's expected to (20+) for any length of time (roughly 20 or so games). Is this a sign of things to come? I'd like to think so, but defencemen seemingly take longer to develop than forwards and have more ebb and flow in terms of their development. The jury is out.

I read some suggestions on Twitter that moving Gilbert "balances out" the pairings by pairing a puck-mover with a stay-at-home player, presumably making the current blueline consist on Whitney-Schultz, Petry-Smid, Potter-Barker/Sutton. The problem with that is Corey Potter doesn't fit into either category, nor does Cam Barker. Potter is a 6th/7th utility guy who can play in a pinch. Despite his scorching start to the season (14 points in 25 games, 0.56 PTS/game), he's come back down to earth with only 4 points in his last 20 games for 0.20 PTS/game, which is much more indicative of his skill set. Barker is supposedly a puck-mover, but the only word to describe him this season is "pathetic." Why in the hell did Tambellini give him $2.25 MIL? Just absolutely brutal and a piss poor decision by the Oiler brass.

Anyway, my point is that this trade doesn't "balance out" the blueline by any stretch. The Oilers need another good puck-mover because they just traded one away. I hope this is just a step in a process to build a more complete defensive corps, because as it stands now this trade doesn't sit well with me.

1 comments:

Jay Parr-Pearson said...

Just to sum up some thoughts. With Gilbert here or not, we needed two puck movers. Gilbert's skills are very overrated.

Potter is a good story, agree he's a 6-7 or even 8 guy.

And the trade doesn't balance anything out, agreed. But, the Oilers just got harder to play against. That's important.

As I've said. This is a process. One step at a time. Tambo had to improve the blue line this summer before the deal. Nothing has changed in that respect.